When It Comes to Climate Change, Which Numbers Matter Most?
Rolling Stone is a magazine best known for its music coverage, of course, but they also have a long history of political and social reporting -- continuing in a recent issue with a much-discussed article by reporter Bill McKibbon about three numbers related to climate change that should be cause for considerable concern.
As McKibbon lays it out, these numbers -- ones that are generally agreed upon in the scientific and political community -- show that climate change isn't something we can wait to address.
These are the three numbers McKibbon addresses in his article:
"But to grasp the seriousness of our predicament, you just need to do a little math.
" Why do these numbers matter? For the first, two degrees Celsius is -- according to positions taken by scientists, the G8, and the Major Economies Forum -- the maximum number of degrees we could raise the earth's temperature without catastrophic consequences.
But we've already raised the Earth's average temperature by just under 0.
8 degrees Celsius, with unexpected consequences like severe weather and increased ocean acidification, so there's growing concern that two degrees is simply too high a number to have as a maximum allowable increase.
The second number, 565 gigatons, is the amount of carbon dioxide scientists estimate we could put into the Earth's atmosphere by the middle of this century while maintaining some hope of keeping the increase in the planet's average temperature under that two-degree goal.
The problem is that there are computer models that show we'd still continue increasing the Earth's average temperature to a point near that two-degree mark even if we stopped increasing the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere now -- and instead of decreasing it, we're increasing it annually.
That's where the third number comes in.
The 2.
795 gigatons figure is the amount of carbon in proven coal, oil, and gas reserves -- ones reported by countries and fossil-fuel companies.
We'd have to keep about 80 percent of those reserves where they are in order to avoid going over the 565 gigaton figure -- which is what is predicted to keep us under two degrees for the increase in global temperature -- which seems unlikely at our current rate of use, and given proven reserves are those resources that companies and countries expect to produce at today's prices.
What does all this mean, put together? In short, what we have been doing so far to combat climate change is not enough, even when we know what we should be aiming for.
This means that people and companies need to elect to do more.
There are many paths that can be taken, but one form of voluntary action is to purchase carbon credits to compensate for our own emissions -- this is something that can be done on every level, from individuals up to large corporations.
As McKibbon lays it out, these numbers -- ones that are generally agreed upon in the scientific and political community -- show that climate change isn't something we can wait to address.
These are the three numbers McKibbon addresses in his article:
- Two degrees Celsius
- 565 gigatons
- 2,795 gigatons
"But to grasp the seriousness of our predicament, you just need to do a little math.
" Why do these numbers matter? For the first, two degrees Celsius is -- according to positions taken by scientists, the G8, and the Major Economies Forum -- the maximum number of degrees we could raise the earth's temperature without catastrophic consequences.
But we've already raised the Earth's average temperature by just under 0.
8 degrees Celsius, with unexpected consequences like severe weather and increased ocean acidification, so there's growing concern that two degrees is simply too high a number to have as a maximum allowable increase.
The second number, 565 gigatons, is the amount of carbon dioxide scientists estimate we could put into the Earth's atmosphere by the middle of this century while maintaining some hope of keeping the increase in the planet's average temperature under that two-degree goal.
The problem is that there are computer models that show we'd still continue increasing the Earth's average temperature to a point near that two-degree mark even if we stopped increasing the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere now -- and instead of decreasing it, we're increasing it annually.
That's where the third number comes in.
The 2.
795 gigatons figure is the amount of carbon in proven coal, oil, and gas reserves -- ones reported by countries and fossil-fuel companies.
We'd have to keep about 80 percent of those reserves where they are in order to avoid going over the 565 gigaton figure -- which is what is predicted to keep us under two degrees for the increase in global temperature -- which seems unlikely at our current rate of use, and given proven reserves are those resources that companies and countries expect to produce at today's prices.
What does all this mean, put together? In short, what we have been doing so far to combat climate change is not enough, even when we know what we should be aiming for.
This means that people and companies need to elect to do more.
There are many paths that can be taken, but one form of voluntary action is to purchase carbon credits to compensate for our own emissions -- this is something that can be done on every level, from individuals up to large corporations.
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